Canada and the American Crisis

This New Year, Canadians seem to have woken up to the unpleasant realization that serious trouble may be brewing on their Southern border. The relief provided by reassuring tones of President Biden and the soothing blandness of his foreign policy team has been replaced by warnings of a looming crisis in America with potentially dire implications for Canada. The prospect of political collapse, and even the spectre of American fascism, is suddenly a topic of public debate.

The crisis is real. But it should not come as a surprise. For many months, even years, numerous American political commentators – including prominent conservatives – have warned of the decline and potential collapse of the Republic. Thinking through the way this crisis (if it comes) is likely to unfold, the possible consequences for this country, and what – if anything – Canada can do about it, is vital. Overly dramatic reactions are unlikely to be helpful, now or in the future. A very clear-eyed realism will be essential if Canada is to navigate what might be some of the biggest challenges it has faced in more than half a century.

A very clear-eyed realism will be essential if Canada is to navigate what might be some of the biggest challenges it has faced in more than half a century.

The first thing to be clear about is the nature of the challenge. It is inevitable that the next decade will be amongst the most divisive in recent American history. If the worst predictions of a contested future election come true, the possibility of civil unrest and violence is very real. But unless the American military splits along partisan lines (in which case all bets are off), the crisis is unlikely to see civil war or hundreds of rows of jack-booted Proud Boys marching in front of the White House. A much more likely scenario is a restoration of order that, if dominated by the radical right, would see increasingly repressive security policies and a slow slide into democratic authoritarianism. The model is contemporary Hungary, not Weimar Germany. The playbook for this process has already been written in Budapest, and the American radical right has studied it carefully. Constitutional government would appear to remain in place, but it would function radically differently. Civil rights would be eroded, and political opposition gradually undermined. Executive power would be enlarged, traditional checks and balances weakened. America would not descend into fascism or civil war, but it would have fundamentally changed as a country...

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